Weekly Review #269: The date AI will replace ATCOs

Written by Vincent Lambercy | November 20 2024

The easiest way to sell a pen today is to say it is powered by artificial intelligence (AI). That's because AI is everywhere. And ATM is no exception. As one of the presenters at the IFATCA ERM in Skopje recently said: "Like it or not, AI is coming." So, the question is: when will AI replace Air Traffic Controllers (ATCOs)?

The answer is complex. The impact of AI on Air Traffic Control (ATC) will not be as simple as directly replacing ATCOs with AI. The industry's culture will ensure that humans stay in the loop. Nobody will try to replace ATCOs directly. Instead, AI is likely to find its way into operations slowly. It will start with support functions getting AI assistants, and over time, we'll gain more knowledge and a better understanding of what is possible.

Improved Medium Term Conflict Detection (MTCD)? Perhaps. Automated Controller-Pilot Data Link Communications (CPDLC) frequency changes? Maybe. It's hard to know at this stage. But a lot of possibilities exist.

What about hallucinations and unpredictable AI decisions? Well, there are ways to address these things. For example, adding an extra non-AI layer to validate what AI proposes. This ensures AI remains within certain limits and directs the ATCO's attention to what is going on. Many organisations, including EUROCONTROL, are working on AI. If you are interested in it, you can should take a look at the latest FlyAI Forum.

AI is coming and the only constant in innovation is that its speed increases. Like it or not, it's important to inform yourself and be a part of the discussion.

On a completely different topic, a new episode of our Radar Contact podcast is available. Marita Lintener had a fascinating discussion with my colleague, Katarzyna, about future aviation professionals and the challenges of attracting and retaining them. This is just one of the topics they discussed, so be sure to listen to the full conversation.

Vincent

ANSP news

FAA launches aerospace rulemaking committee for space flight safety - Unmanned airspace- FAA ended Fiscal Year 2024 with a record 148 licensed commercial space operations, up more than 30 percent over the prior year. The FAA forecasts that number may more than double by FY 2028 and is launching an Aerospace Rulemaking Committee to update the FAA’s Part 450 launch and reentry licensing rule.
Isavia ANS implements Performance Based Navigation (PBN)- Isavia ANS has published a Transition Plan for Performance Based Navigation for Iceland, in the document PBN Transition plan for ICELAND. The document is published in accordance with the Icelandic regulation 444/2020 that implement EU Regulation 2018/1048. Design of standard enroute-, approach- and departure routes will be based on the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instead of Non-Directional Beacons (NDBs). The Transition Plan was prepared in coordination with airspace users and airports and is updated every year in the fall.
NATS announces Clarity, a new way for airports to balance sustainability and operational demands- Currently in development, Clarity will allow airports to analyse and compare the carbon impact of different aspects of their operation and to understand the relative effectiveness of any future sustainability initiatives or investments. NATS believes the tool will help airports to best plan their route to net zero by providing detailed evidence of the value of a whole range of environmental initiatives.
AirNav Ireland Launches Sustainability Management Plan And Commits To Measures To Reduce Aviation Ca- Recent environmental initiative yielded an estimated 66,000 kilos of carbon savings following 30-day trial carried out by AirNav Ireland, Cork Airport, Aer Lingus and Ryanair.
Airservices Australia seeks community feedback on Hobart Airport flightpath changes- Airservices Australia is inviting the community to have their say on proposed flightpath changes at Hobart Airport. This follows Airservices’ assessment of two community suggested recommendations from the Hobart Airspace Review Post Implementation Review.
Morten Fruensgaard becomes new COO of Naviair- Naviair, the Danish air navigation service provider, announces the appointment of Morten Fruensgaard as its new Chief Operating Officer (COO). Fruensgaard brings a wealth of experience in the aviation industry and is set to lead Naviair's operational functions. His strategic vision and leadership skills will contribute to the company's continued success in ensuring safe and efficient air traffic management in Denmark.
21st DANUBE FAB Social Consultation Forum- The 21st DANUBE FAB Social Consultation Forum took place online on 31 October 2024, bringing together representatives from BULATSA, ROMATSA, and their social partners. In light of the recent changes to the SES2+ legislation, DANUBE FAB and its social partners reaffirmed their commitment to cooperation, focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and resilience. Participants discussed current challenges, reviewed strategic initiatives, and emphasized their shared social priorities. This highlighted DANUBE FAB's dedication to an adaptive and collaborative approach in managing airspace in Eastern Europe.
Oro Navigacija Presents Lithuanian UTM System Ahead of Implementation- Oro Navigacija has showcased the Lithuanian UTM system in preparation for its upcoming implementation. The unveiling of this advanced technology marks a significant milestone in the field of unmanned traffic management. The Lithuanian UTM system promises to revolutionize the way drones navigate airspace, ensuring safety and efficiency in operations. With this groundbreaking development, Oro Navigacija is at the forefront of UTM innovation.

Airport news

Airservices Australia calls for community feedback on preferred Ballina airspace and flightpath design changes- Airservices Australia is inviting the community to have its say on preferred airspace and flightpath design changes around Ballina Byron Gateway Airport aimed at safely accommodating the continued growth of air traffic in the region. Ballina’s enhanced air traffic services will take effect in 2025, following a 2022 airspace review by the Civil Aviation Safety Authority, which included extensive industry feedback. The region will soon transition from the current uncontrolled airspace – where pilots self-separate using information provided by Airservices’ air traffic control – to controlled airspace.
Target commissioning date of three-runway system at Hong Kong International Airport - The Three-runway System (3RS) at Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) is targeted to be commissioned on 28 November 2024. After the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) has acquired the aerodrome licence and the 3RS has been commissioned, all three runways will be operating under the 3RS.
Birmingham Airport chooses NATS as new air traffic service provider - Birmingham Airport has reappointed NATS as its air traffic service provider on a 10-year contract.
Africa's Largest Airport Construction Started in Ethiopia- Ethiopia is implementing a major transformation project in its aviation sector, aiming to become a leading player in global aviation, the Ethiopian Civil Aviation Authority announced in September. Ethiopia has started the construction of Africa's largest airport, capable of handling 100-130 million passengers annually.
London Heathrow's Proposed Third Runway: What Are The Latest Developments?- Stay up-to-date on the proposed third runway at London Heathrow Airport with the most recent developments discussed in this article.

Market news

DFS Aviation Services Bahrain CO WLL wins two-year contract extension in Bahrain - DFS Aviation Services Bahrain Co WLL has once again won the tender for the provision of air traffic control personnel to the Bahrain Civil Aviation Affairs (BCAA), securing a two-year contract extension with the Ministry of Transportation and Telecommunications of the Kingdom of Bahrain. Since 2019, DAS Bahrain has been providing support to BCAA’s Air Navigation Services, significantly contributing to the safety and efficiency of air traffic in the region.
Indra furthers its Asia-Pacific ATM business with the contract to renew Vietnam's Air Traffic Management systems with cutting-edge technology- Indra has been awarded a contract with Vietnam's Air Navigation Service Provider, VATM (Vietnam Air Traffic Management Corporation), to overhaul a large part of the country's air traffic management systems. Based at the Ho Chi Minh control centre, Indra will deploy its cutting-edge automation solution ManagAir, one of the most advanced and widely used systems in control centers and airports around the world.
FREQUENTIS secures contract with AirNav Ireland for highperformance backup ATM system- Frequentis has signed a major contract with AirNav Ireland, the Air Navigation Service Provider of Ireland, to deliver a state-of-the-art contingency air situation display system (CASDS). This project underscores Frequentis’ commitment to advancing air traffic management systems both in Europe and globally.
New project in Malaysia - ICZ Group- ALES, as part of the T7 Kemuncak, Malaysia consortium, has won a contract for the Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) in Kuantan. The signing of the contract for the ATM system and consoles is being finalized these days. The aim of the project is to replace the existing ATM system with a new one. Our task will be delivery of the ICZ LETVIS ATM system, its installation and integration on site, including the operators and technicians training.
Indra wins a major contract in the United States to renew the air-ground communications system key to the country’s Air Traffic Management - Resulting from a competitive solicitation issued, under which three companies competed, the FAA has awarded Indra a contract with a total contract value of $244.3M, if all options are exercised, to renew its ground-air communications system, key to air traffic management in the country, by replacing its analog radio systems (UHF and VHF) with digital radio equipment capable of analog and VoIP operation. This contract positions Indra as the global leader in radio communications for ATM with roughly 50% market share.
Indra strengthens its position as a global player in the Air Traffic Control market with the acquisition of Micro Nav and Global ATS from the Quadrant Group- Indra expands its leadership of the global Air Traffic Management after its Board of Directors approved the acquisition of 100% of the share capital of the companies Micro Nav and Global ATS, from UK-based Quadrant Group. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals.
ATAC acquires the I-SIM (Integrated Simulation) software suite from Kongsberg Geospatial - ATAC has recently acquired the I-SIM integrated simulation software suite from Kongsberg Geospatial. This acquisition aims to enhance ATAC's simulation software capabilities, providing customers with a more comprehensive and advanced solution.

Context information

Auckland Airport remains key economic generator for New Zealand – Airport World- Touch downs at Auckland Airport are driving up New Zealand’s economic fortunes with new aviation infrastructure set to bring tens of billions of dollars more benefit, according to an economic analysis by consultants EY. The airport’s chief customer officer, Scott Tasker, said the investment underway at Auckland Airport will be a key enabler of future growth right across New Zealand.
Advanced digital solutions sought for drone operations - Airservices- Airservices Australia is calling on innovative drone technology companies to help shape the future of aviation by delivering advanced digital solutions to drone operators to enhance safety, make it easier to access airspace, and foster industry growth. Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Service Suppliers are invited to submit a Request for Proposal (RFP) to collaborate with Airservices Australia in advancing digital platforms for the next generation of drone operations.
Papua New Guinea Renews Contract with Aireon for Space-Based ADS-B- Papua New Guinea has decided to renew its contract with Aireon for their space-based ADS-B technology, enhancing air traffic surveillance capabilities. This partnership is expected to improve air traffic management and safety in the region.
EASA Annual Safety Conference 2024: how technological innovation can help humans enhance aviation safety - This year’s EASA Annual Safety Conference took as its theme “Safety – technology – and the human dimension”, focusing on the critical importance of the well-trained human in keeping aviation operations safe, and on the parallel need to apply technology prudently to enhance aviation safety even further.
Understanding Resilience and Human Differences in Aviation Safety- This article discusses the importance of evaluating resilience and human variability in the context of aviation safety. It explores how understanding these factors can lead to improved safety measures and more effective risk management strategies within the aviation industry.

Research and innovation

SESAR Innovation Days 2024: A catalyst for ATM transformation- From 11-15 November, more than 600 leading European researchers, industry stakeholders, and policymakers gathered in Rome for the 14th SESAR Innovation Days (SIDs), the flagship event for air traffic management research and innovation in Europe. Hosted by Aeroporti di Roma, ENAV, and Leonardo and organised by the SESAR JU, the conference featured more than 37 posters, 54 technical papers, and a diverse range of sessions on topics including climate-optimised trajectories, innovative air mobility, digital flight rules and quantum computing.
‘CLEAN ATM 2’ & ‘GREEN CNS’ awarded €141 million to accelerate modernisation of European sky - SESAR DM- Paloma Aba Garrote, Director of CINEA (the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency), Mariagrazia La Piscopia, Executive Director of the SDM and Raúl Medina, Director General of EUROCONTROL and representing the Organisation in its role as SDM Consortium Coordinator, today celebrated the signature of two Grant Agreements awarding €141 million in total to the CLEAN ATM 2 and GREEN CNS projects.
SESAR partners advance dynamic airspace reconfiguration for safer, more efficient air mobility- SESAR JU partners recently conducted a series of technology validations focused on advancing dynamic airspace reconfiguration within the framework the ENSURE project. From November 6 to November 8, 2024, these tests took place at the CRIDA premises in Madrid, concentrating on developing DAR processes that will improve airspace management, particularly in complex airport environments.
Blockchain in Aviation- Aviation is a critical industry that forms the backbone of the global economy and transports millions of people safely every day. The industry’s top priority is to maintain the highest standards of flight safety and security at all times. However, with increasing digitalization and data flows, ensuring security poses a major challenge, especially in terms of information sharing and ensuring the accuracy of data. This is where blockchain technology stands out as an innovative solution that could revolutionize aviation safety.
White Paper: Enhancing E-AMAN with Space-Based ADS-B - Aireon - The aviation community is facing complex challenges: surging air traffic, the imperative for efficiency, sustainability, and safety. ICAO, SESAR, and other initiatives drive modernization, having yielded many practical solutions ready for deployment. At major airports, tools like the Arrival Manager are enhancing operations, yet traditional AMAN systems encounter limitations for example, if input data is insufficiently available to enable extended planning. Enter the Frequentis Extended Arrival Manager leveraging AireonFLOW — a global, high-fidelity, low-latency position data source.
EASA grants STC to Aerodata for anti-jamming anti-spoofing system - Unmanned airspace- Aerodata AG has been granted a Supplemental Type Certificate by EASA for its GPS anti-jamming and anti-spoofing system. This certification applies to installations integrated with Garmin 5000 avionics in a Cessna Citation Latitude jet.

Reports and data

Oman's airports record total of 11.1 million passengers in 9 months- Oman's airports recorded a total of 11.1 million passengers during the first nine months of this year, reflecting a 5.1 percent growth compared to the same period last year. These passengers were accommodated on 82,500 flights, indicating a steady increase in both passenger numbers and flight frequency.
Optimizing airline operations with Flight Block Time: A key to efficient scheduling and operational planning – Cirium- Flight block time is crucial for airlines in optimizing their scheduling and operational planning. By accurately calculating the time a flight will take from departure to arrival, airlines can better manage resources and ensure efficient operations. Understanding and utilizing flight block time effectively can lead to cost savings and improved on-time performance for airlines.
Fraport Traffic Figures – October 2024: Passenger Volumes Hold Steady at Frankfurt Airport- The number of aircraft movements decreased by 2.1 percent to 39,849 takeoffs and landings.
Passenger growth in October, highest growth in international traffic - The Avinor Group- There were 56,696 commercial flight movements in October. This figure is unchanged compared to October last year. So far this year, there are 1 percent fewer flight movements compared to the same period in 2023. 2,167 drone flights were reported in Ninox Drone. This is an increase of 35 percent compared to 2023. Even though the autumn started with worse weather, the strong increase in the number of drone flights continues, says Mats Gjertsen, Head of the Drone Program at Avinor. So far this year, there are 5,000 more flights than in the whole of 2023.
UK’s two millionth flight arrives earlier - NATS- This points to UK air traffic levels being very close to pre-pandemic levels, with every likelihood that next year will set new records. NATS safely handled 222,567 flights over the month of October, an increase of 0.8 per cent on October 2023.
Mangaluru International Airport Achieves Record Passenger & Air Traffic Movement in October 2024- Mangaluru International Airport has set a new milestone by handling the highest ever passenger and air traffic movements (ATMs) for FY2024-25 in October 2024. The airport recorded a total of 1,538 air traffic movements, which includes 1,091 domestic, 403 international, and 44 general aviation flights. The Airport handled 1,433 air traffic movements in September 2024.
European Aviation Trends paper on Summer 2024 performance - EUROCONTROL- Summer 2024 was a very complex and difficult summer. Traffic was up 5% on 2023 and passengers experienced extensive delays, with over a third of flights delayed by more than 15 minutes on arrival. Air Traffic Management contributed to this, with en-route delays of 4.6 minutes per flight, up 52% on 2023 and the second worst year ever.
Morocco’s Airports Soar to New Record with Over 24 Million Passengers by September- Aircraft movements saw an increase, with 179,863 flights recorded - a 15.44% rise from the same period last year.

UAV and UTM

Japan and Singapore agree to jointly develop UAS and AAM regulations - Unmanned airspace- The civil aviation authorities of Singapore (CAAS) and Japan (JCAB) have agreed to deepen collaboration in air connectivity, sustainable aviation, aviation safety, air traffic management, aviation innovation, and uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) and advanced air mobility (AAM), to serve rising demand for global air travel which is expected to at least double over the next 20 years.
BIRDS to use High Lander UTM system in Brazilian airspace management project - Unmanned airspace- High Lander’s São Paulo-based subsidiary BIRDS will use the company’s Vega uncrewed traffic management (UTM) system to manage airspace as part of Brazil’s BR-UTM project. Following acceptance into the project by the Brazilian Department of Airspace Control (DECEA), BIRDS will demonstrate the system to the authority as it investigates the implementation of UTM technology throughout the country.
Is Europe ready for U-space? Yes – but…. - Unmanned airspace- Commentary by Philip Butterworth-Hayes.Last week’s Innovative Air Mobility Implementation Forum organised by EASA took stock of progress towards developing U-space airspace areas in Europe.

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